Thursday, November 30, 2006
While voters under 30 were the most favorable age group in 2004 for Kerry, casting 54 percent of their votes for him, Democratic House candidates in 2006 received 60 percent of their votes, compared with 38 percent for Republicans. Nationally, partisan identification breaks 38 percent Democratic to 35 percent Republican, but among those under age 30 the percentages are 43 to 31 in favor of Democrats. This pattern runs as strongly in the West as in the East, the Midwest and the Pacific states, a clear indication that the Western states are heading out of the Republican camp -- out of alliance with the deep South's Republican states and into coalition with the broad majority. In Wyoming and Arizona, where Republicans won elections for the House and Senate, the Democrats would have won by 16 and 15 points, respectively, if the elections had been conducted only among under-30s. In Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester won by 1 percentage point, fewer than 3,000 votes, his margin among under-30s, who were 17 percent of the electorate, was 12 points.
Bush has been the formative political experience for the youngest generation of voters, those 18 to 30. Studies of voting preferences show that the experience imprinted on a generation in its 20s largely determines its future political complexion. This generation is the most Democratic generation ever -- more Democratic than the youngest voting generations of the New Deal and the 1960s.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Morton and his supporters have made the classic right wing mistake of overestimating the conservatism of the voting public. At least Canadians in points east have the excuse of distance for believing that Alberta is a monolithic block of right wing religious extremists. Those who actually live here mostly know that the overwhelming mainstream consensus is center right - with the emphasis on the center. Albertans are fiscal conservatives, or think they are - with pockets of class war populism in Redmonton, and an overwhelming majority of social moderates and progressives in urban areas. As one appalled Tory back-bencher said, this is Alberta not Alabama.
There's a strong strain of social conservatism in some parts of rural Alberta yes, but simple demographics are changing that inexorably and visibly. I've lived in Alberta - both rural and urban Alberta almost my entire life. I can count the number of Albertans under thirty I've encountered who give a tinkers damn about gay rights or abortion on one hand with a finger left over for Morton and his supporters - you can probably guess which one. The future of Alberta like that of the rest of Canada is young and urban.
They're largely an apathetic bunch, but crazy Ted and his focus on division, intolerance and absolutism would fire them up nicely.
Alberta's every thirty or forty years of switching the party in the one party state is a well known political phenomenon - less well known or at least less well acknowledged is that last time it happened, it was a progressive alternative trouncing an entrenched reactionary government. Lougheed's Progressive Conservatives were practically Liberals compared to the far right Social Credit government they replaced.
I support Ted Morton for leader of the Alberta PCs for the same reason I loved Stockwell Day's tenure leading the Alliance: he will kill his party stone dead. It's the first time I've ever agreed with Gary Mar about anything, but he happens to be 100% right about the damage Morton would do to the Tories.
The moderate and progressive vote would go to the Liberals and New Democrats - the corporate money would too.
Liberals and particularly New Democrats in Alberta should however, take careful note of the strong note of economic populism in Morton's campaign. The support he's garnered is as much to do with anti-elitist backlash, his angry slams against 'Calgary corporate lackeys' and Morton's one decent idea of re-addressing Alberta's resource royalty regime as his appeals to intolerance and bigotry.
New Democrats and other opponents of the Tories need to embrace the class war themselves. The success of the self described 'only conservative in the Conservative leadership race' and for that matter the economic populists among the Democrats swept into office this month south of the border have made it clear there are serious gains to be made in doing so.
And my final reason for my modest proposal of support for Snortin' Morton? Nothing spurs me to write more than intolerance, selfishness, cruelty, willful ignorance, and legislative appeals to the lowest common denominator.
With Morton in charge I'd be blogging every day.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Sunday, November 26, 2006
- Rafael Correa probable winner in Ecuador -
Is the leftist surge in Latin America even debatable anymore?
- They're listening to you on the street -
Surveilance culture in UK reaches new zenith.
- American Science Teachers Assoc. turn down free Inconvenient Truth DVDs -
But they'll take $6 million from Exxon.
- Eating the Ocean -
Total fish species collapse projection: 2048.
- There is no Iraqi State -
Bush is right, it isn't Civil War. Its much, much worse.
- US environmental policy may be transformed by Supreme Court -
Decision on EPA oversight of greenhouse gasses.
In the Congress the Republicans have to beat more than 14 Democratic incumbents to re-take the House in 2008 - they didn't beat even one this election. In the Senate 22 Republicans are up for re-election in 2008 while only 12 Democrats are - experts agree only a handful of House seats from either party are at all competitive. The Democrats will almost certainly hold the Senate and likely firm up their control, and the same result is probable in the House. This is simply electoral math not even counting what seems to be a strong and growing progressive shift in the American electorate that is likely to swing things even further to the Democrats.
Of course the Presidential race is the wild card - Bush is languishing in the polls but neither he nor his VP are candidates - the question is who will the Primary process deliver up from both parties? Clinton, Obama, Clark on the Democratic side - McCain, Romney, Giulliani on the Republican side - much depends on who is picked by the Primary process, a process that favors candidates who play to the two parties bases.
As a guess - McCain VS Obama seems a real possibility as McCain tacks hard right in preparation for the anti-deviationist frenzy of the Republican primary process and the Democrats make the hard calculations about the extent of the harsh anti-Hillary feelings in the American mainstream.
And of course, external factors such as oil prices, when, not if the housing bubble pops completely and just how bad Iraq gets in the next two years.
All three branches of the elected government in the US going Democrat in 2008 is the safest bet.
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Uncle Vlad, or Pootie-Poot as the leader of the free world calls him, may be an ally in the war on terror due to his ruthless suppression of Muslims in Chechnya, but his seemingly equal ruthless willingness to resort to murder to silence his foreign and domestic critics should give the West pause.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Gilles Duceppe of course, shat a brick. Some of the more fetishistically federalist Liberal MPs expressed reservations, but Jack Layton and Bill Graham both expressed support for the motion and Graham even crossed the floor to shake Harper's hand.
But on the cover of today's Globe and Mail, above the fold, Graham's reaction is portrayed very differently. His quoted reaction, explicitly to Harper's motion is:
"How could we ever support a motion on Quebec by a party that has zero commitment to Canada, which is blind to the greatness available for Quebckers within Canada?"Wow. Harsh words about the motion and about Harper's Conservatives. Only one problem.
That quote was about the Bloc's motion not the Conservatives - which referred to Quebec rather than the Québécois and didn't include within a united Canada.
As to Harper's motion, Graham's actual reaction was:
"This is a matter that transcends all party politics,This is a matter on which the Liberal Party of Canada, which has had a great role in building this country, will be voting in favour of...We will not be voting for a concept dictated by the Bloc Québécois."I'm having real trouble believing a mischaracterization that massive, front page above the fold could possibly be an accident.
Monday, November 20, 2006
After dropping 84 cents in the three months leading up to the election, oil prices have risen 5 cents in the two weeks since the GOPs thumpin'.
The public is encouraged not to draw any irresponsibly obvious conclusions.
Sunday, November 19, 2006
- Houston Strikers trampled by Horse Police -
And then abused in custody.
- NeoCons reduced to 'crazy screaming pantsless guy on street corner' status -
- Back to Texas again, where it's 2006 and a Dallas school board is arguing 'Separate but Equal' -
Sure we saved a classroom just for the white kids but the black and latino kids got books too.
- The Last Big Push -
A final titanic effort to move Dick Cheney's drinks cabinet twenty inches closer to Baghdad.
- Criminal Profits from Crimes -
"Here's how I did it, if I had done it, which I didn't."
- The Shades of Justice -
The semiotics of sunglasses on CSI Miami.
- To the People of Northern BC, apologies from a Calgarian -
Outrider's offices are just a few blocks from me too. But blame Campbell's so called Liberals for making it so easy to pull this crap. It's been that way here in Alberta forever.
Saturday, November 18, 2006
In fact, Iraq is the brittle point that the entire generational policy of borrow and squander economics has been tripping over again and again. In Bush Sr's day, we could not overthrow Saddam because we were too far in hoc from all the Reagan-Bush deficit spending. Today we couldn't spend the money to do nation building in Iraq, because we were busy bailing out everyone who lost a ton of money in the stock market.
The goal was to have big tax breaks for big Bush donors. But how to generate economic activity, if the money we were supposed to be using for a stimulus package was, instead, being sunk into Klimt paintings? The obvious answer was a war. But it had to be a war that would generate both jobs and oil. Greedy eyes turned towards Iraq, and saw a place that could be a lot like Texas - no water, lots of oil.The neo-conservatives were rather late on to this particular bus, but they were, as the old expression goes, useful idiots. By prattling about Democracy they made it look as if this was an argument between unreconstructed pale-conservative imperialism, and a kinder gentler imperialism.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
In strong and vibrant democracies, a generous social-welfare state is not a road to serfdom but rather to fairness, economic equality and international competitiveness.Jeffrey Sachs, the former free-market ideologue who advised Russia to opt for cut-throat capitalism has now accepted that the facts on the ground simply don't support the Washington Consensus. The road to stability, social justice and economic success is through a strong welfare state.
Environment Minister Rona Ambrose came under fire on the world stage yesterday, but the attacks in Kenya were decidedly homegrown, with Canadian opposition MPs, Quebec's Environment Minister and environmentalists calling her positions "idiotic" and "ridiculous."...Well A:) yes of course it does, that's the point, and B:) it's not Canada's position they're undermining, it's the Conservative Party's. There's a big difference between the position of the Canadian people - 7 out of 10 remember, who voted center left to socialist in the last election - and the Conservative Minority government and their made in Calgary's oil company boardrooms non-plan for the environment. Hence, one of many reasons for the comatose Tory poll numbers.
Liberal MP John Godfrey and Bloc Québécois MP Bernard Bigras openly mocked the minister, laughing out loud as they quoted her recent defence of the government's policies. Claude Béchard, Quebec's Environment Minister, was not as critical of Ms. Ambrose as the others were, but said he wants the minister to reverse herself this week and commit to the Kyoto Protocol.
The news conference brought an angry response from Ms. Ambrose's spokesman, Bob Klager. He called the actions of the Canadian politicians "highly inappropriate," especially because they held the event before Ms. Ambrose even landed in Nairobi.
"The minister invited them to come over here, so the fact that they're going out and doing that is only going to undermine Canada's position here," he said. "It's not helpful at all."
And frankly, if you say something as mind-numbingly, gob-smackingly stupid as 'We're meeting all of our commitments except the targets' you deserve a public pantsing.
Monday, November 13, 2006
I really hope the West's intelligence agencies are watching some of these bloggers at least as much as they do young Arab males.
Sunday, November 12, 2006
- Scumbag - Lieberman shows the whip hand.
- Threat From Outer Space - conscious Hip Hop from Vancouver
- The YouTube Police Brutality Collection - If we're going to be a surveillance culture at least the prevalence of cameras and cameraphones allows us to watch the watchmen.
- Evangelical Haggard Claims He Was Molested By Republican Congressman - Authorities have not acted on Haggard's allegations, saying that Republicans are often accused of wrongdoings simply because so many of them lead secret gay or criminal lifestyles.
- Begin the Inquisition - The Democrats biggest problem is what Republican scandal to go after first - the next two years leading up to the presidential election will be endless public humiliation for the GOP.
- Warren Ellis on the Web - One of my favorite comic book writers, who has an extensive web profile.
Since 1977, casualties from this war include seven murders, 17 attempted murders, three kidnappings, 152 assaults, 305 completed or attempted bombings and arsons, 375 invasions, 482 stalking incidents, 380 death threats, 618 bomb threats, 100 acid attacks, and 1,254 acts of vandalism, according to the National Abortion Federation.
Abortion providers and activists received 77 letters threatening anthrax attacks before 9/11, yet the media never considered anthrax threats as terrorism until after 9/11, when such letters were delivered to journalists and members of Congress.
After 9/11, Planned Parenthood and other abortion rights groups received 554 envelopes containing white powder and messages like: "You have been exposed to anthrax. ... We are going to kill all of you." They were signed by the Army of God, a group that hosts Scripture-filled web pages for "Anti-Abortion Heroes of the Faith," including minister Paul Hill, Michael Griffin and James Kopp, all convicted of murdering abortion providers, and a convicted clinic bomber, the Rev. Michael Bray. Another of their "martyrs," Clayton Waagner, mailed anthrax letters while a fugitive on the FBI's 10 most wanted list for anti-abortion related crimes.
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Thursday, November 09, 2006
If Democrats really want to they can filibuster this grotesque piece of self serving abuse of the constitution out of existence. Lots of commentators telling them they should 'moderate' - basically by accommodating the President in any way they can. Going on Democrat's behavior in recent years, it's not totally beyond belief. It just depends how accommodating they are feeling.
Senator Chuck Rangel just indicated he'd like Dick Cheney's current house office thank you very much.
How Bush Should Handle Loss [Jonah Goldberg]I think James Baker and Dick Cheney should take Bush out to the woods around Camp David. After 24 hours in a sweat lodge, he should be given only a loin cloth, a hunting knife and a canteen of water. Bush should then set out to track and kill a black bear, after which he should eat its still beating heart so he can absorb its spirit. He should then fly back to Washington in Marine 1. His torso still scratched from the bear's claws, his face bloodied and steaming in the November chill, he should immediately give a press conference at which he throws the bearskin on the front row of the press corps, completely enveloping Helen Thomas, declaring, "I'm not going anywhere."
This will send important messages to Democrats and well as to our enemies overseas, who are no doubt high-fiving as we speak.Update: Case in point
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
The Democrats now control the Senate with two independents, Lieberman to the right of the party and Bernie Sanders, the first self-avowed socialist ever elected to the Senate, decidedly to the left.
When you consider that its in the state legislatures that the Republicans rammed through some of the more grotesque gerrymandering of the last decade, and the increasing number of states even before these results taking local action on climate change, this was the change last night that may actually end up making the most difference going forward.
The two major parties are no longer locked in parity in state legislatures. Wresting control from the GOP in all the chambers that changed hands outright, the Democrats now control the legislatures in more states than they have since 1994. And not since that election year have all the chamber switches gone one way.
As of 7 a.m. MT, Democrats control both houses of the legislature in 23 states; Republicans in 15, and nine are split. Final counts aren't available yet for three chambers in two states: the Montana House and Senate and the Pennsylvania House. This adds up to 49 states because Nebraska's legislature is nonpartisan.
Before the election, Republicans controlled 20 state legislatures; Democrats 19, and 10 were split.
Democrats won approximately 275 more state legislative seats, adding up to new majorities in nine chambers across the nation: the Iowa House and Senate, the Indiana House, the Minnesota House, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House and Senate, the Oregon House and the Wisconsin Senate. (The Iowa Senate was previously tied.)
Armed, threatening and almost pathetically eager to provoke conflict and violence Ray Warden has a noxious history of intimidation and bullying:
With a fanny pack loaded with water bottles strapped to his belly, a Glock 9mm on his hip, and a bullhorn to amplify his outrage, Roy Warden, 59, emerged this spring as one of the country's most controversial, volatile, and, many believe, dangerous characters of the anti-immigration movement. Along with occasional sidekicks Russ Dove, a former militia leader and convicted car thief, and Laine Lawless, the founder of the group Border Guardians who earlier this year urged neo-Nazis to terrorize Hispanics, Warden has burned and trampled Mexican flags in public, nearly started at least one riot, regularly wreaked havoc on Tucson City Council proceedings, and E-mailed a death threat to a prominent local public defender. Without regular followers or even a named group behind him, Warden is a one-man band of immigrant-bashing hate, a man so untamed that other anti-immigration activists shun him as an embarrassment.
In Sweden, the only way the Moderates were able to eke out even a slim win from the Social Democrats was by moving virtually every party position sharply to the left and promising to reform and protect the social safety net, not dismantle it. They have to rule in coalition with smaller right wing parties and they needed the confluence of events presented by scandal in the ruling Social Democrats who still won the most overall seats. Scandal already taints the new government.
The lesson clearly taken by Schwarzenegger, who obviously still keeps an eye on European politics, was that trying to be a right wing ideologue in a liberal state was just stupid politics. After a disastrous first half Arnie banked hard to the left and towards a conciliatory approach with the Democrat controlled legislature. His environmental policies are his most public rebuke to his president and party. In all but name, Governor Schwarzenegger is a Democrat now - in fact he's further to the left today, than a lot of the people elected as Democrats last night.
The thing to remember about last nights razor edge margins, CNN has called Montana for Tester, so we're now down to a few thousand likely Democrat votes in Virginia before the Democrats can claim the Senate, is that these close Democrat wins come after years of frantic gerrymandering and pork-barrel spending by the Republicans.
Despite engineering what senior Republican strategists like Rove and Norquist gleefully called a permanent Republican majority, they still lost.
Commentators have talked endlessly of scandal and sourness over the war and distaste towards incumbents who just happened to be Republicans. All relevant, but the real story is a generational and geographical demographic shift towards the left. The MSM really, really wants you to believe that this election is bolt from the blue, a perfect storm that freakishly shifted the electorate and besides, the Democrats elected a lot of conservatives.
This is whistling past the graveyard of the right wing surge of the last several decades. The swing to the left, to progressive policy alternatives will start accelerating now - expect more election nights like this one.
It'll be interesting to see who replaces him, the White House could present some kind of faux bi-partisanship by offering the job to Senator Lieberman, coincidently tipping the power back in the Senate if Montana and Virginia tip Democrat.
The replacement will be a former CIA chief, Dr Robert Gates. Strong connections to the President's father and James Baker. This is the grown-ups in the GOP taking over.
The bad, or at least nail-biting news: Democrat Senate control hangs on a few thousand votes in Virginia and Montana. Expect recounts for days and probable court challenges stretching the question into the new year.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
In some of the happiest news of the night, South Dakota voters appear to be decisively overturning The Napoli Law, the ultra restrictive abortion ban that had no exceptions for rape, incest or the health of the woman. Good news.
America punished Nicaraguans throughout the 80's for daring to vote for leftists with a terrorist campaign that ended up costing 30,000 lives. Nicaraguans gave in and let successive American supported conservative governments run the country in line with the Washington consensus of unrestricted trade, selling off the public sector and 'free trade zones', sweat shop camps where even limited labour laws were non-existent and no taxes went to the state. Result? An economy competing with Haiti for the poverty stricken bottom of the hemisphere. The people of Nicaragua finally signalled today that they'd had enough.
The Leftward tilt continues in Latin America.
With all these highlights as the voting day continues the most telling point may be senior Republicans quietly avoiding the electronic voting machines:
"As voters are coming out of their cars and walking up towards their polls, one person is videotaping the voter as he walks towards the polling place," she said. Then another person, wearing an American flag bandana and a shirt with the image of a badge ironed or embroidered on it, approaches with a clipboard to talk to the voter. "While the clipboard person is. . .talking to [the voter], the cameraperson comes up and starts videotaping their face," Perales said.
As this happens, the third man -- with a gun visible in a sideholster -- stands next to the voter. According to Perales, he is wearing a shirt with an American flag on it, and camouflage shorts.
The men only approach Latino voters, she said, and noted they have been doing so since early this morning.
From TPM Reader TO:I voted directly behind Bob Novak this morning in a small polling place on Capitol Hill. Novak immediately picked the paper ballot too. There was no line.
As with Mehlman, Novak had a choice between paper and an electronic machine.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
- Iraq for Sale - An interview with film maker Robert Greenwald and a link collection to his full movie library.
- Saddam sentenced to hang - Nervous Iraqi and American officials prepare for the worst.
- Interrogation methods should be State Secret Argues White House - How we torture you is classified.
- Canadian Government won't appeal section of Anti-Terrorism Act being struck down - Juliet O'Neill and The Ottawa Citizen v. the Attorney General of Canada has officially changed law.
- Army Times calls for Rumsfeld's Resignation -Influential military newspaper chain takes unprecedented step over sitting Defense Secretary.
- David Frum for the Closet - It's better to sneak around and hide your 'shame' then live free and open.
- Electronic Voting Machine Slays Nine - Carnage started when Democrat picked.
- Cook's Last Forecast - The GOP will lose Congress big, possibly massively, they're edging back to safety in the Senate
Saturday, November 04, 2006
Of course an essential point to their ferocious promotion of their cause was their full throated defense of Bush, of the team he had assembled and yea, did bosoms heave manfully and jowls quiver aggressively in the brisk wind of the hot air blown about the resolute genius of George W. Bush, the cold yet heroic cunning of Dick Cheney, and of the steadfast, experienced mastermind Donald Rumsfeld, the ideal Secretary of Defense to bring America into the 2st century.
It's as if they think we are too dumb to remember their own words of just a few years ago.
The Republicans have sued to keep elderly voters in poor and minority areas from getting flu shots at early voting - a program that's been going for ten years.
This is what desperation looks like.
Friday, November 03, 2006
The trial, which started a year ago, aimed to heal Iraq's wounds after Saddam and his Baath party's 35-year regime. Instead, it has become a symbol of Iraq's divisions, between the long-oppressed Shia majority, who now rule the country, and Saddam's Sunnis. Clashes between them tomorrow could push Iraq over the edge....
In Baghdad yesterday, Sunnis were resentful and Shia gleeful at Saddam’s possible fate.
Note these are just those who admit to planning to vote. I've said for months that the story on November 8th will be all the Right Wingers who end up not voting at all.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
The Senate: "While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate."
The House: "Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years."
Governors: "With Republican seats like Idaho, Alaska, and Nevada in play for state-specific reasons, and Minnesota vulnerable to a Democratic wave, the ceiling for possible Democratic gains is high. We have narrowed our earlier projection from Democratic gains of 6-10 to 7-9."
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!... sorry... couldn't. keep. straight. face...heeheehee...
Ok. I'm better now. Really.
Credit where credit is due: I'm impressed that Joe Flaherty and the Conservatives were capable of the hitherto unseen abillity to accept stark reality when it was rubbed in their face long enough, and enough intestinal fortitude to do what was necessary. And enough basic humanity, or at least political savvy, to reduce the impact of the neccesary steps on Canadian senior investors.
One last relevant thought from the Globe's Eric Reguly to consider as Corporate Canada's outraged stuffed suits bawl like branded calves:
Tax balance -- the relative proportion paid by corporations and individuals -- was already in trouble in Canada. The rising trust market threatened to kill it. The impression given by corporations, with their lobbyists and PR men and speechwriters, is they pay the lion's share of the taxes in this country, and that the tax burden is making them uncompetitive in the global market. Nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is that corporations paid the equivalent of 60 per cent of all individual taxes collected in the early 1960s, according to national accounts. Since then, the figure has dropped to about 30 per cent. In other words, the relative tax burden on the individual has doubled, while on corporations it has been halved.
Simultaneously, with all eyes on the Liberal Leadership contenders and weeks to go to convention, they will now have to explain to the extremely pro-environment Canadian people, and even more pro environment Quebec delegates whether saving the world is worth it or not.
Jack Layton just picked the next Liberal Party leader and the election date.
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