Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are headed toward a majority government without the help of Quebec, a new national poll suggests.Nothing is more likely to immediately depress their numbers then these poll results. You heard it here first, as soon as its reported that the Conservatives are actually polling high enough to possibly win a majority the Canadian people feel the gorge rise in their throats and reconsider the protest vote they were thinking of casting and the Tory numbers immediately crash again - look for a big drop in the next polls, cluster-
The Nanos end-of-year survey is significant, revealing an emerging Tory strategy in which the governing party is concentrating on winning groups of riding with focused issues. And it appears to be bearing fruit for the Prime Minister.
“The current configuration of national support for the Conservatives suggests that numerically a Tory majority government can be formed without significant breakthrough in the province of Quebec,” pollster Nik Nanos told The Globe. “In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrowcast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long-gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition.”
The Nanos poll has the Tories seven points ahead of their rivals, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals – 38.1 per cent support nationally compared to 31.2 per cent. The NDP is at 17.2 per cent; the Green Party has the support of only 3.2 per cent of Canadians and the Bloc is at 10. 2 per cent. About a quarter of respondents, or 25.4 per cent, were undecided.
But by all means Tories, if you're feeling your beer muscles please do test these numbers by calling a spring election. I look forward to the results you'd achieve.
UPDATE Dec 10: barely a week later and fantasies of majority government disappear like a wisp of smoke. What a surprise