Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Irresponsible Speculation

It's election night November 4, 2008 and Democratic candidate Al Gore has just convincingly beaten sitting Vice President Condoleezza Rice - in both the popular and electoral college vote...

No, neither of them are candidates right now and Rice is currently the Secretary of State, but follow along for a moment...

Al Gore lets the other Democrats flail away at each other for the next six months, waits until fall to announce and then drops into the race at the last minute instantly eclipsing all the other candidates. He begins his campaign with an Academy Award, picks up a Nobel Prize to go with it just weeks before the primary and sails to victory on Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side, Cheney resigns in the spring due to his carefully established pattern of health problems, defusing the complications from the Libby conviction and taking a fat target away from the Democrats. He's replaced by Condoleezza Rice, allowing the Republicans to brag about having the first black female Vice President and instantly overpowering the other potential nominees.

McCain isn't ever able to placate the base still angry over his independant stands of the distant past, Giulliani's demons surface and he spectacularly flames out in the summer and the Christian Right just can't get past the whole Mormonism thing with Romney. Rice wins the nomination almost by default.

However on election day the African American surge for Rice the Republicans were hoping for fails to materialize due to lingering resentment over the Hurricane Katrina debacle and Rice's association with the Administration's Iraq policy, even less popular in two years than it is now - meanwhile Republican turnout is poor as dyed in the wool conservatives nation-wide all have something better to do on election day than vote for a black woman...

And Al Gore finally gets the job he should have seven years ago.

Come election night we may have one of the contests everybody expects right now - Clinton VS Giulliani or Obama VS Romney - or similar variations, but it's actually pretty rare that the favorites in March end up being the candidates in November.

Shorter Andrew Sullivan: Only Hillary can save the Republicans now.

Update: Newt?


Allan Grant said...

"Cheney resigns in the spring due to his carefully established pattern of health problems"

It's damn near impossible to fake or hide a health condition in Western politcs these days. Cheney's in bad health and everybody knows it. But so what? He's been in bad health for about a decade now. Cheney will fight tooth and nail to stay in power as long as he can... Or until they scrap his festering carcass out of his chair.

McCain's spectacularly well-documented history of repeatedly voting against his own loudly-stated principles will sink him. Giulliani will win the masochist punish-me-daddy-punish-me vote, but no one else. The Christian Right will go for Romney because he's good enough for now.

The real spoiler in the Republican candidates is Undeclared. Six months from now the Republican front-runner will be a governor from one of the southern states.

Al Gore would have to be an idiot to run again. The columnists and commentators currently encouraging him to run are the same ones who savaged him in 2000. They enjoyed it so much they want a second chance to really get their teeth in. Gore declares, and the next day all the articles will be calling him a flip-flopper, a hypocrite, an out of touch media darling, a has-been trying to recapture his glory days...

Clinton is doomed. It's not just that people don't like her, there's an entire industry dedicated to hating her. Bumper stickers, books, ball caps, TV programs... She has a powerful political machine that will keep her in the running for a few more months, but in the end she'll drop her candidacy for an offer of a position in another candidate's cabinet.

Obama... Strong political machine, bright, young, good looking. Not a hope in Hell. He started too soon and made himself too big a target. And as a junior senator other candidates will be able to paint him as inexperienced.

Six months from now the Democratic front-runner will be a governor from one of the mid-western states.

Cliff said...

Oh yeah, I agree, the media is definitely baiting Gore in the hopes of having him as a pinata again. Hence my theory has him making his primary run as abreviated as possible to give his tormentors as little time as possible to go after him.

In an election run next year NO Democrat, Gore included, will make the old mistake of letting attacks go unanswered. They've finally figured out that the dignified 'remaining above the fray' thing is a big KICK ME sign. Edwards even responded to Coultergeist for God's sake. Gore would be attacked as much as any Democrat - but may be innoculated now that he knows what would be coming.

Cheney doesn't need to fake a health condition. He already has one - and whether or not it's bad enough to make him resign is entirely a matter of degree, perspective and optics. I suspect the fact that Cheney has a ready made excuse to drop out at any time has been a factor in White House contingency plannng for many years.

Your 'two undeclareds currently off the radar' narrative is certainly plausible - I never suggested my prediction was certain or even likely - simply an interesting exercise.

Chris said...

The problem with Al Gore is, well...Al Gore.

He's a hideously bad candidate. The only reason why Bush lost the popular vote to him in 2000 was because of that DUI story that came out on the Thursday before the nation went to the polls. The fact that Gore lost his home state to Bush should be more telling. He should have pumped loads of cash into Tennessee and Ohio and taken one of those states, and with it, the election.

As to Condi, you're leaving out a couple of things. How do you know she'd be running as VP?Have you thought of that? Bet you didn't. There are many ways to skin the cat.

Condi doesn't have to win the black vote. She just has to get above 20%. Any Republican who gets between 15 and 20% of the black vote and wins white men sends the donkey to his room without any dinner by 9:30 p.m. on election night. It's like the Liberals trying to win a Canadian election without Ontario.

Oh, Condi is extremely popular among Southern white men. Our polling shows us this consistently. You should really get out of Canada more often and read Daily Kos a lot less.

One last thing. Al Gore would actually have to debate Condoleezza Rice. Three times. To translate: three very long evenings for Al.

That's not the same thing as debating George Bush. Not at all.

Matthew The Astrologer said...

Personally, I'd love to see Romney or Newt as the Republican candidate, and admit it: you and everyone out there with a blog to fill would love it too...

My personal favourite for Head Republican? Vladimir Putin. No question. All Cheney's charm, and half the calories!

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