Wednesday, May 14, 2008

The coming Republican Apocalypse

With its huge money advantage, solid candidates in many districts in which the Dems were previously content to provide passive resistance, and the examples of the previous special elections -- especially last night's win in Mississippi -- Democrats could be looking at picking up some 20 to 30 seats in the House.

Before you go screaming about getting hopes up, that is a conservative estimate, ace. I looked at all the congressional districts currently held by Republicans that have a Partisan Voting Index of R+5 or less, including seats held by Republicans in Democratic districts. (Chris Shays springs immediately to mind.) There are 65 such seats. I put certain seats in the gimme column (AZ-01, for example, in which disgraced Rick Renzi will allow for an easy Democratic takeover) and others I dismissed out of hand (AL-03, for example, which, despite an R+3 rating, is never going Democratic).

The 111th Congress will see heavy Dem. majorities in both Houses. First order of business: The public castration of Grover Norquist.

It's a little pat and self congratulatory, but it's also probably true. The Democrats are used to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory but that could be why Obama is taking iron-fisted control of the party.

I think it can be safely said, that absent some huge scandal or a sniper, the Americans are about to elect a black man president - and he'll have the control over congress that will let him be an effective one - about 20 years ahead of schedule than I would have guessed. All it took was a Republican president so inept and vile that he burned the GOP brand to the ground.

Goodbye Reagan revolution, you won't be missed.

1 comment:

Matthew The Astrologer said...

Oh God oh God oh God Pleasepleasepleaseplease....

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