Uh, oh.

Turkish army demands incursion into Iraq

Turkey's military chief asked the government yesterday to approve an incursion into Iraq, increasing pressure on the US and Iraq to fight Kurdish guerrillas.

The staunchly secular Turkish military distrust the current Turkish government because of it's alliances with Islamist parties. This was the military putting pressure on the government leading into the Turkish election season. The regions already unsteady house of cards is now wobbling in a fierce wind.

Meanwhile Bush seems to be hoping that he can provoke the Iranians into doing something stupid. Back when Eisenhower was President he wouldn't put his fleet into the strait between Taiwan and mainland China because all it would take is one edgy Chinese soldier firing his pistol at a passing American destroyer to start World War III. Currently the Bush administration is conducting highly provocative maneuvers right off the Iranian coast, multiple carrier groups, seemingly because they hope the Iranians will start something. See Sy Hersh's interview in this week's Rolling stone:

A lot of people interpreted your last article in "The New Yorker" as a prediction that we're going into Iran. But you also make clear that the Saudis have reasons to keep us from attacking Iran.
I've never said we're going to go -- just that the planning is under way. Planning is planning, of course. But in the last couple of weeks, it has become nonstop. They're in a position right now where the president could wake up and scratch his, uh --

His what?
His nose, and say, "Let's go." And they'd go. That's new. We've made it closer. We've got carrier groups there. It's not about going in on the ground. Although if we went in we'd have to send Marines into the coastal areas of Iran to knock out their Silkworm missile sites.

So the notion that it would just be a bombing campaign isn't true at all?
Oh, no. Don't forget, you'd have to take out a very sophisticated radar system, and a guidance system for their missiles. You'd have to knock out the ability of the Iranians to get our ships.

So this is the "fail forward" plan?
I think Bush wants to resolve the Iranian crisis. It may not be a crisis, but he wants to resolve it.