Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Obama in '08 a certainty

It's over. At this point, after nine straight wins for Obama, Clinton would have to not just win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to pull ahead of him on delegates in the Democrat proportional representation system, she would have to win all three by double digit margins.

It's just not going to happen. The Democratic Party isn't going to seat the delegates stripped from Michigan and Florida after all the candidates endorsed them being removed and the superdelegates certainly aren't going to go against the will of the primary voters. Do you think the Democratic Party wants to present to African Americans the spectacle of unelected party elites stealing the nomination from the black candidate? Get serious.

Clinton went from an assumption of inevitability to a busted flush in a matter of weeks - up until this week I thought she'd still pull it out. It's got to be heart-breaking for her, but she needs to start thinking about the good of her party and her country and begin working on her concession speech.

Short of the Democratic party completely screwing things up - never a safe bet that they won't - the American people are about to elect their first black President.

Get ready for the Republicans to go to the southern strategy. Get ready for dog whistle racism from the party owned pundits and desperate attempts to suppress the African American vote from Republican officials. This is going to get very, very ugly before its over.


McGuire said...

Race baiting & voter suppression, you mean the kinds of things Hillary has been doing against Obama???

Cliff said...

She could refurbish her reputation at this point by conceding gracefully. The thing is, on policy she's better than Obama in many ways. Her healthcare plan is better and Paul Krugman has a point when he says that Obama has an unfortunate tendency of buying into Republican framing on issues like Social Security.

That said there are multiple reasons why Obama is the more attractive candidate; not least the poll numbers for hypothetical match ups with McCain in the general and his potential to bring people into the political process who otherwise might give it a miss.

Were I an American I would have been supporting Edwards until he dropped out and then have moved to Obama. I'd really like to see an Obama/Edwards ticket but I realize someone like Governer Richardson is far more likely - a great candidate with a great resume who can help Obama with his weakness with Latinos. Plus it’s a ticket guaranteed to give the racist right fatal aneurisms.

Lord Kitchener's Own said...

Here's an interesting little thought experiment.

If you give Obama the same proportion of super delegates as he has elected delegates (roughly 53 to 47 in favour of Obama now) and apply that proportion only to the 395 superdelegates that CNN has assigned to a candidate, that gives Obama 209 super delegates to Clinton's 187. That would make the TOTAL race now stand at 1363 for Obama and 1197 for Clinton (as opposed to CNN's total of 1315 for Obama and 1245 for Clinton, based on her superdelegate lead).

If you make ALL 795 super delegates follow the proportion of the total elected delegates to date, that makes the race 1575 Obama / 1385 for Clinton.

This is just a hypothetical thought experiment of course, and I'm not suggesting such a shift in superdelegates would (or should) happen, I just think the numbers are interesting. Surely, as the race goes on, if the PEOPLE keep favouring Obama (53-47 now) there will be increased pressure on the party brass to follow the people's lead (whereas now, among those who have announced their support, they favour Clinton 59 to 41). Of course, this turns the entire rationale for the existence of superdelegates on its head, but these people are politicians remember. They ignore the will of the people at their peril.

Cliff said...

Originally the unstated rationale was to protect the party from the primary voters picking an unelectable candidate - in this case most of the polls give Obama and edge over Clinton against McCain in the general.

Cliff said...

Here comes the first wave of Republican race baiting: According to The National Review: Obama is mixed race and in his 40's - therefore his parents must have been commies. Please note the 'Asian girls for Love and Marriage' advertisement on the same page as this despicable crap for that extra surreal frisson.

Cliff said...

That correct link:

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