Stevie and the Base

Steven Chase in the Globe today has a big article all about how Harper fully realizes that his base is only about 30% and his plan to shift the Canadian public rightward will have to be incremental.

Of course that doesn't explain how Harper thought he could get away with slashing arts funding and talking about throwing 14 year old children in prison with violent adult prisoners making them, as Duceppe so memorably put it, fresh meat for the perversions of older convicts. These are positions that may have excited the primitive emotions of the rednecks (I live in Alberta, I know whereof I speak.) but in Quebec particularly, are likely to end any hope Harper may have had of a majority this election.

Last year a British Tory had some advice for American Republicans already facing support that was bottoming out:

You have to be very honest with yourself about what voters think. It may not be the same as what you think. Confusing these two things is very easy. Untangling them is vital.

Despite their claims to the contrary, Harper and the Conservatives really do overestimate the support their reactionary program has. That overestimation has cost them 10 to 20 potential seats minimum in Quebec this election and any lingering hope of a majority, and with the American voters seemingly about to put a capstone on the Reagan revolution the trend here in Canada is also likely to be leftward rather than towards Harper's base.