Death of American Movement Conservatism in 2008?

Even before the midterm two weeks ago, 2008 was always going to be problematic for the Republicans.

In the Congress the Republicans have to beat more than 14 Democratic incumbents to re-take the House in 2008 - they didn't beat even one this election. In the Senate 22 Republicans are up for re-election in 2008 while only 12 Democrats are - experts agree only a handful of House seats from either party are at all competitive. The Democrats will almost certainly hold the Senate and likely firm up their control, and the same result is probable in the House. This is simply electoral math not even counting what seems to be a strong and growing progressive shift in the American electorate that is likely to swing things even further to the Democrats.

Of course the Presidential race is the wild card - Bush is languishing in the polls but neither he nor his VP are candidates - the question is who will the Primary process deliver up from both parties? Clinton, Obama, Clark on the Democratic side - McCain, Romney, Giulliani on the Republican side - much depends on who is picked by the Primary process, a process that favors candidates who play to the two parties bases.

As a guess - McCain VS Obama seems a real possibility as McCain tacks hard right in preparation for the anti-deviationist frenzy of the Republican primary process and the Democrats make the hard calculations about the extent of the harsh anti-Hillary feelings in the American mainstream.

And of course, external factors such as oil prices, when, not if the housing bubble pops completely and just how bad Iraq gets in the next two years.

All three branches of the elected government in the US going Democrat in 2008 is the safest bet.