Monday, December 24, 2007

Meaningless Presidential Predictions

A useless exercise, but fun. At this late date I re-examine the parallel Republican and Democrat campaigns for President and offer my picks for the likely survivors.

On the Republican side, while I sympathize with Andrew Sullivan's hope that the Huckabee surge propels him to the nomination so that he can get massively spanked in the general and break the fundys power over the party, I think the surprise come from behind winner will be...John McCain.

All of the successive Republican 'it girls' who have bobbed to the top of the midden in the past few months have sunk again as Republicans come to terms with the incredibly weak lineup of grinning waterheads they have to choose from. Huckabee is just the latest flavour of the moment as Giuliani and Romney were before him. The GOP establishment have the knives out and the media only built him up in the first place to have an obligingly bobbing pinata to tear down.

McCain has been quietly fighting a rope a dope game letting the front-runners bloody each other while his ground troops maintain the networks he's built up over years. My prediction is that he comes from behind and steals back the nomination people used to think was his by default.

Of course every polling indicator suggests that the Republican nomination will be a poisoned chalice in the general - particularly for an unabashed Iraq war supporter like McCain.

On the Democrat side - John Edwards. Massive discipline of message and campaign, a growing base missed by the campaign press focused on the Clinton/Obama show and that 'handsome liberal southerner' thing that has been very good to Democrats at the ballot box in the past will all come to a critical mass if he pulls off a win or even a respectable second place in Iowa -a place where he's been waging an impeccable crowd pleasing campaign and is remembered fondly from past races. He's who I'd be voting for were I an American.

He's the best case scenario for Democrats in terms of policy and winnability and considering the intriguingly gentle treatment the Edwards and Obama campaigns have given each other, with either we might get the other as a VP bonus.

Of course I might be completely wrong, it wouldn't be the first time - but I reserve the right to crow if I'm not.

UPDATE: Three days later and now CNN says the same thing.

No comments:

Popular Posts