Monday, December 06, 2010

Kiss of Death

The media do the Conservative Party the great dis-service of reporting that they are in striking distance of a majority. 
Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are headed toward a majority government without the help of Quebec, a new national poll suggests.

The Nanos end-of-year survey is significant, revealing an emerging Tory strategy in which the governing party is concentrating on winning groups of riding with focused issues. And it appears to be bearing fruit for the Prime Minister.

“The current configuration of national support for the Conservatives suggests that numerically a Tory majority government can be formed without significant breakthrough in the province of Quebec,” pollster Nik Nanos told The Globe. “In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrowcast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long-gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition.”

The Nanos poll has the Tories seven points ahead of their rivals, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals – 38.1 per cent support nationally compared to 31.2 per cent. The NDP is at 17.2 per cent; the Green Party has the support of only 3.2 per cent of Canadians and the Bloc is at 10. 2 per cent. About a quarter of respondents, or 25.4 per cent, were undecided.
Nothing is more likely to immediately depress their numbers then these poll results.  You heard it here first, as soon as its reported that the Conservatives are actually polling high enough to possibly win a majority the Canadian people feel the gorge rise in their throats and reconsider the protest vote they were thinking of casting and the Tory numbers immediately crash again - look for a big drop in the next polls, cluster-fuck strategy notwithstanding.

But by all means Tories, if you're feeling your beer muscles please do test these numbers by calling a spring election.  I look forward to the results you'd achieve.

UPDATE Dec 10: barely a week later and fantasies of majority government disappear like a wisp of smoke.  What a surprise


CK said...

I'm afraid that is wishful thinking. Jane and Joe Six-Pack have been brainwashed much like the American tea-baggers south of us and thanks to Harper's controlled message in the right slanted media, the majority center has shifted rightward.

With the Rob Ford win in Toronto, now yielding a rolodex of volunteers and staff for the cons, the McGuinty Liberals tanking provincially in favour of the cons not the NDP, and the Fantino win, looks like Ontario is primed to go con. Helps when stimulus has been extended to 905 ridings where Harper is now targeting. Pork barreling.

He only needs 10 more seats for that coveted majority; all he has to do is sweep the 905 and even grab some of the 416, as well as that NDP seat in Edmonton.

However, while he may not need Quebec to get more of these seats, he does need to hang on to the 11 he has. Not so sure how easily that will go, given he probably will get cocky and not hand over the cash for the Quebec City arena. Most of those con seats are in and around Quebec City and Mayor Regis Labeaume is quite the populist and could well start campaigning that they lose all those Quebec City seats. Frankly, that is the only way I can see Harper not getting his majority.

Cliff said...

He's been here before and as soon as the numbers came out they tanked. I remain confident that the Canadian people remember the last time Conservatives had a majority.

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