Attacking a minority for purely political gain - too little, too late?

If George W. Bush thought there were more votes in supporting gays rather than attacking them he would have volunteered to be Elton John's best man.

His friends describe a President who really doesn't give a shit about gay marriage but sees a chance to shore up his base with a little hate-baiting.

But will they fall for it this time? They've noticed he only throws them a bone when he's in trouble. They've noticed the so called economic recovery seems to be jobless, and they're starting to worry about Iraq as in a lot of cases it's their kids fighting it.

The 72% of troops on the ground calling for a withdrawal translates to a significant chunk of Americans who will listen to a soldier say 'let's get out of here' when they won't hear it from anybody else.

The Latino vote was an important part of the GOP's strategy over the next few years and Bush had carefully nurtured it. The Nativist anti-immigrant frenzy oozing out of the GOPs paleo-conservative wing has probably turned them off for a generation.

Blacks were beginning to be a group the Republicans could start to peel off the Democrats with wedge so-con issues aimed at church-goers. After Katrina, the odds of African Americans voting Republican in any kind of statistically measurable way has dropped precipitously.

Moderates and soccer moms are more likely to be turned off by attacks on minorities and Republicans and Democrats are now polling about the same on the subject of security, historically one of the GOPs safe pet issues.

A lot of conservatives like Bush and his policies but can see an incompetent leader when his fecklessness is rubbed in their faces for six years. They won't vote Democrat, but I'll bet you the big story in November and again in 2008 will be the conservative voters who stayed home on election day.

note: Apologies for the Blogger system funkiness that got this posted multiple times - they were a hassle to clean out too.