Saturday, June 17, 2006

Perfect Storm coming for Global Economy?

Rising oil prices, rising interest rates, delberately incomprehensible financial instruments and a discredited World Bank and IMF facing potential bankruptcy. The gigantic US deficit which could easily lead to a world wide recession. They could all be about to go off at once like unexploded bombs.

Ready or not, we could be due for something that makes the tech bubble pop look like a hiccup.


Gazetteer said...

Not that I completely disagree, but Paul Krugman made a decent case yesterday that inflationary pressures, especially the wage component, are not as strong as many are predicting. I also get the feeling he thinks that a significant commodity slump is coming.

Cliff said...

mmm. Possibly, if predicting this kind of stuff was easy, economics would be a science rather than something more akin to tossing the bones abd hoping the juju isn't bad...

The other slow motion transition I find interesting is the shift from the employer market to the employee market as the boomers all start retiring at once. Here in red hot Calgary we're seeing the crunch a little sooner than the rest of Canada, with stories of diswashers being offered ridiculous wages and trips to the tropics in exchange for long term contracts.

Almost certainly bullshit, as most employers don't seem to have realized yet that the employee crunch is a long term thing. they still don't get that getting rid of manadatory retirement and lowering the minimum working age, increasing immigration - preferably with some kind of uber-exploitative guest worker program, and maybe t-shirt friday just isn't going to cut it.

There are panicky articles in the business journals about how this new young generation of workers have a zero bulshit tolerance and will quit in a second if they are lied to, bullied or condescended to. Because they can.

Suddenly market forces are no longer on their side and the 'management class' seem terrified they may have to change their ways.

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